Value at the running back position is dominated by opportunity. After week one, injuries have already created plenty of opportunities. The fog of production creates substantial value opportunities.
Baltimore Running Backs
The Terrence West story is one that could be looked back on at the end of the year as a bad miss. He exited the 2016 season with the lead role in the backfield. His role only expanded after the injury to Kenneth Dixon. In addition, Baltimore never added a running back outside of Danny Woodhead.
In addition, the Ravens brought in Greg Roman as the senior offensive assistant coach. He has a history of producing highly effective running games in San Francisco and Buffalo and was added to the staff to help an offense that lead the league in passing attempts last year.
West is not a great running back. However, he is the prototypically size running back on a team that ran the 42 times in week 1. 42 rushing attempts may be the high water mark for the season, but the team projects substantially higher rushing attempts than last year.
Interestingly, Javorius Allen, not West, led the Ravens in rushing attempts with 21. He had a solid 2015 season prior to his injuries but he projects better to the change of pace type role that Woodhead was slotted for before his hamstring injury.
West is the least respected starting running back in the NFL. However, there is value in the workload he projects to carry. In the offseason, you could not get a 2nd round pick for him and the price likely has not risen. Allen is the name that will be popular with Woodhead out, but West projects as flex worthy with a dependable floor in the 2017 season. If his value is a 3rd round pick in your leagues right now, he is a solid buy right now.
David Johnson
The David Johnson owner in every league is desperate right now and is likely in a tricky spot. Johnson’s 2016 season was so good he carried bad rosters into the playoffs and won some of them titles. Now with Johnson on IR, those rosters are likely not playoff caliber. And yet the owner thinks he can patch the holes.
This creates a great opportunity to trade with the David Johnson owner. This can be either for Johnson or selling a running back to the Johnson owner.
This week, I acquired David Johnson and a 2019 1st for Melvin Gordon. A week ago, I could not trade Melvin Gordon and a 2019 1st for David Johnson. Sensing desperation to plug a thin roster, the owner needed instant production. On a team I took over as an orphan in the offseason that does not project to contend in 2017, the Johnson acquisition is striking gold.
If everything breaks perfectly and I make the playoffs and Johnson returns from IR, he could carry the team to a title. Or I could turn around and sell to a contender for a windfall at the trade deadline. Even if Johnson misses the rest of the season, he projects to return healthy in 2018 a year off a top-5 startup valuation, with little added wear and tear.
Another avenue to explore is to buy the Johnson owner’s 1st round pick. They may not yet realize how big a hole Johnson creates, and may think they can plug it with an acquisition like Chris Carson, Ameer Abdullah, Mike Gillislee or even Kerwynn Williams. Look at the roster without Johnson, and if the roster projects to struggle to contend, buy their first. Put together a package that offers the team immediate running back production and see if their projected point totals with the package would make them a playoff contender. If the trade does not get the roster to the playoff threshold you are acquiring a high first round pick.
If you own Johnson, do not fall into this trap.
Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt burst onto the NFL scene last Thursday in Foxboro. He had a great performance with 246 total yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 touches. His value is as high as it has ever been, and he could fetch round 2 or 3 startup return. He should continue to see volume as the clear best back in Kansas City.
Hunt is a heat check type of player right now that warrants exploring what he could return. Look for return that is in the round 2 or 3 range of startup picks, or try and package for round one asset. And be aggressive. If Odell Beckham Jr. misses another week while Hunt goes off, the Beckham owner may be nervous on his season. It would be the perfect time to package a sell high for Beckham on the low.
A similar approach could target the David Johnson or Allen Robinson owner. If the Allen Robinson owner thought they were a contender but are 0-2, they may give Robinson and a 1st for Hunt. Even though this is dynasty, during the season too many owners think in a redraft mode. Hunt could be a big cash in type player.
Rookie Running Backs to Monitor
Joe Mixon led the Bengals backfield in touches with 11, but only produced 24 yards. Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combined for 15 touches. This situation warrants monitoring. If a muddled mess continues, Mixon’s value may slide off his 1.03 range of rookie value. The plunge has not happened yet, but if Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey all continue to produce, the Mixon owner may start to get nervous.
Also of note, Samaje Perine saw no offensive work, while Rob Kelley popped off 3 yards per carry. Perine appears to be in Jay Gruden’s dog house at the moment. However, if Kelley’s plodding continues for weeks, check Perine’s price, he is the clear better talent than Kelley over the long-term.
